Recent price action on the EUR/USD H4 chart suggests the market is approaching a high-probability reaction zone, where a Bullish TOTAL harmonic pattern completes. After a strong selloff from the January highs, the pair has now reached a key confluence area where Fibonacci projections and structural support intersect, potentially opening the door for a corrective bullish move.
Trend Overview: From Rally to Sharp Decline
The EUR/USD experienced a strong bullish impulse that culminated near 1.2060–1.2080 in late January. This move marked the peak of a significant upward expansion phase.
Following that top, the market transitioned into a corrective bearish phase, characterized by:
Lower highs forming on the H4 structure
Strong impulsive bearish candles
Break of previous support levels
The recent drop has now brought price back toward the 1.1400 region, which historically acted as a demand zone and is also aligned with the completion point of the harmonic structure.
Decoding the Bullish TOTAL Harmonic Pattern (H4)
The chart highlights a Bullish TOTAL harmonic pattern, a structure that integrates multiple Fibonacci ratios and extensions to project a potential reversal area.
Key Harmonic Points (Approximate Levels)
| Point | Price Level |
|---|---|
| X | ~1.2065 |
| A | ~1.1745 |
| B | ~1.1900 |
| C | ~1.1590 |
| D (completion) | ~1.1400 – 1.1420 |
The projected completion zone aligns with:
1.272 extension
2.236 extension
Structural support
Trendline support from previous swing lows
This confluence significantly increases the probability of a technical reaction from this region.
Key Levels & Price Action Insights
Support Zones
1.1400 – 1.1420
Primary harmonic completion zone and immediate support.
1.1350 – 1.1370
Secondary support if the first zone fails.
1.1280 – 1.1300
Deep support and long-term liquidity area.
Resistance Zones
1.1550 – 1.1580
First corrective resistance after a bounce.
1.1700 – 1.1740
Major H4 structure resistance.
1.1860 – 1.1900
Previous swing high and strong supply area.
Fibonacci Context
The harmonic completion zone integrates several Fibonacci projections:
1.272 extension
2.236 extension
Retracement clusters from previous swings
When multiple harmonic projections converge in a narrow range, it often creates a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), where institutional flows may step in.
Risk Management & Trading Strategies
Scenario 1 — Bullish Reaction (Primary Setup)
Entry zone:
1.1400 – 1.1420
Stop loss:
Below 1.1350
Targets
TP1: 1.1550
TP2: 1.1700
TP3: 1.1860
This scenario assumes the harmonic PRZ holds and price begins a corrective recovery.
Scenario 2 — Confirmation Entry
More conservative traders may wait for:
Bullish engulfing candle on H4
Break of 1.1550 resistance
Structure shift to higher highs
Entry could then occur on a pullback toward 1.1500–1.1520.
Bearish Invalidation Scenario
If price:
Breaks below 1.1350
Closes decisively under the PRZ
Then the harmonic pattern becomes invalid and the market may extend toward:
1.1300 – 1.1250
Conclusion: Monitoring a Critical Reversal Area
The EUR/USD H4 chart currently presents a Bullish TOTAL harmonic pattern completing near the 1.1400 region, which coincides with a significant technical support zone.
Although the broader short-term trend remains bearish, the presence of a harmonic PRZ suggests that a corrective bullish reaction could develop from current levels.
Traders should monitor price action closely for confirmation signals, as reversals from harmonic completion zones often produce high-momentum counter-trend moves.
